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COVID-19: Is NJ Doubling Rate Really Getting Better?

New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy has been touting the rate of doubling increasing in every county in NJ. This is a good thing to see, but the data is still so garbage that there is no way to tell if it is real.

The problem is that while the number of positive cases has increased our number of tests have remained stagnant.

Look, the math is simple.

If you do 100 tests today and 40 come back positive you have 40 cases. If you do another 100 tomorrow and another 40 come back positive then you have a 100% increase. Oh no! We have a doubling rate of 1 day!

But the good news is that in two days well do another 100 tests of which 40 will come back positive, but our rate of doubling will now have dropped to only 50% and a doubling rate of 2 days.

Wait until you see what happens on the 4th day! ๐Ÿ™„

If you look at the state totals for the past several days you’ll see that regardless of how many tests we run we are always about 40 to 50 percent positive. Without further explanation for why we have such varying numbers of total tests across the state (are they shifting resources, is it different demands) and without knowing if the tests are being processed sequentially I’m left to assume that we are under testing. Significantly.

Please let me know if you think I’ve missed some news that would help fill in these gaps. I would love to believe that our doubling rate really is lowering, but I’m just not convinced by the available data.